Italy will face Northern Ireland in the semi-finals of the European play-offs for the four remaining World Cup spots. This was determined by Thursday afternoon’s draw.
After finishing second behind Norway in regular World Cup qualifying, Italy have once again been condemned to the play-offs so dreaded by the Azzurri.
For a nation that prides itself on being a four-time world champion and one of the traditional powers of world football, the word play-offs has almost become synonymous with trauma. It is through this route that Italy missed the 2018 World Cup after a shocking defeat to Sweden and again failed to reach the 2022 tournament following the infamous loss to North Macedonia.
Those two collapses still weigh heavily on the collective memory of Italian football. The images of Gianluigi Buffon in tears at San Siro after the goalless draw with Sweden, and the stunned silence after North Macedonia’s late winner in Palermo, are regularly replayed whenever the subject of the national team’s recent history comes up. That is why being pushed back into the lottery of the play-offs, instead of qualifying directly, is seen as a major failure and a dangerous situation despite the quality in the current Italian squad.
A reunion with those old tormentors, Sweden and North Macedonia, was very much on the cards ahead of the draw for the European play-offs. Many Italian supporters feared exactly that outcome, imagining a narrative in which history would come back to haunt them for a third time. Instead, the draw produced a different path, but not necessarily an easier one. Northern Ireland will be the opponents in the semi-final, a one-off tie to be played on 26 March, with no margin for error. On 31 March, if Italy progress, a final against either Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina will decide whether the Azzurri return to the World Cup stage or once again watch it from home.
Northern Ireland are a side that, on paper, Italy will be expected to beat, but the play-off format makes everything less predictable. It is a single match, likely in a charged atmosphere and under immense pressure, where one mistake, one refereeing decision or one moment of brilliance can decide the entire campaign. Northern Ireland are known for their physical approach, strong defensive organisation and ability to make life uncomfortable for more technically gifted teams. They have a proud tradition of upsetting bigger nations, especially at home, and will treat the clash with Italy as one of the biggest occasions in their recent history.
From the Italian point of view, the key questions will revolve around how to handle the psychological burden. The squad will be reminded constantly of the previous failures in 2017 and 2022. Many players have grown up watching those disasters and will know that another absence from a World Cup would be almost unthinkable for a country where football is woven into everyday life. The coaching staff will have to strike a delicate balance between acknowledging the past and not allowing it to paralyse the team. Experience, leadership and a calm approach will be crucial in the build-up to the semi-final.
Tactically, Italy are likely to dominate possession against Northern Ireland. The Azzurri will be expected to push high up the pitch, circulate the ball quickly and try to break down a low defensive block. That places a lot of responsibility on creative midfielders and full backs to provide passing lines and overlaps, as well as on the forwards to be clinical with the limited space they are given. Set pieces could play a decisive role, both as an attacking tool for Italy and a potential weapon for Northern Ireland, who will be dangerous on corners and free kicks.
If Italy manage to get past Northern Ireland, the final will bring a very different kind of test. Wales and Bosnia and Herzegovina are two nations with contrasting profiles but a similar level of ambition. Wales have built a strong identity over the past decade, regularly reaching major tournaments and often performing above expectations. They are usually compact, aggressive and direct, capable of striking quickly in transition. Bosnia and Herzegovina, on the other hand, have produced technically gifted players and can be difficult to handle when their key individuals find space between the lines. In either case, Italy will face a team that sees this final as a once-in-a-generation opportunity.
A World Cup ticket awaits the winner on 31 March, and that fact shapes every decision leading up to the play-offs. The Italian federation, the coaching staff and the players will likely use the months beforehand to fine-tune the squad, build automatisms and identify a clear starting eleven. Warm-up games, player fitness and form in the clubs will all be analysed from the perspective of these two decisive fixtures rather than a long tournament. It is a very different mindset from preparing for a group stage, where there is time to adjust after setbacks.
The broader picture of the European play-offs also shows how competitive the continent has become. There are four separate paths, each with its own internal storylines and heavyweights. In Path B, Albania, Poland, Ukraine and Sweden will fight for a single World Cup place. That group is full of quality and tension. Albania have surprised many with their rise in recent years and will look to build on that momentum. Poland and Ukraine both have star players capable of deciding matches on their own, while Sweden are trying to regain the solidity that once made them a nightmare opponent, including for Italy.
In Path C, Turkey appear to be the early favourites. They are joined by Romania, Kosovo and Slovakia. Turkey are known for their passionate supporters and a talented generation that, when focused, can trouble any side in Europe. Romania have a rich history at international tournaments and are trying to re-establish themselves on the biggest stage. Kosovo, still relatively new in the international scene, play with intensity and freedom, while Slovakia are traditionally compact and hard to beat, relying on discipline and work rate.
Path D offers its own drama, with Denmark, Ireland and Czechia together with North Macedonia. Denmark have been one of the most balanced teams in Europe in recent years, combining strong defensive organisation with a clear attacking structure. Czechia, with their mix of physical presence and technical ability, are always capable of putting together a strong qualifying run. Ireland, with Troy Parrott among the promising names, brings the familiar mix of fight, direct play and aerial strength. North Macedonia, meanwhile, will always be associated with their famous win against Italy in the previous cycle, a reminder that underdogs can change the course of history in a single night.
From an Italian perspective, watching the other paths will only underline how unforgiving these play-offs are. One mistake and a big football nation can vanish from the World Cup. The margins are so fine that top-level planning, mental preparation and a bit of good fortune all become equally important. This is not a long league campaign where quality usually wins out over time. It is a knockout sprint where there is no room to recover from a bad day.
For the Italian public, the coming months will be filled with a mix of hope and anxiety. The Azzurri have shown in the past that they can rise to big occasions, as they did in winning the European Championship. At the same time, recent history in World Cup qualifying demands respect for the threat that the play-offs represent. The narrative practically writes itself: one of the giants of world football forced once more to walk the tightrope, one slip away from another painful absence.
What is certain is that the semi-final against Northern Ireland on 26 March and a potential final against Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina on 31 March will be more than just football matches. For Italy they will be a test of character, identity and the ability to learn from past failures. For their opponents they will be an opportunity to make history by knocking out one of the biggest names in the game. And for neutral fans they promise the kind of drama that only the play-offs, with all their tension and unpredictability, can deliver.
