A victory in Sunday's final makes the Englishman the favorite, but a Spanish triumph will widen the pool of contenders.
The final stretch of Vinícius Júnior's season at Real Madrid didn't seem to leave much doubt about the winner of the next Ballon d'Or.
However, the Brazilian's poor performance in the Copa América reopened the discussion, and only Bellingham, his teammate at Los Blancos, could potentially seal it if he celebrates England's unprecedented European Championship victory tomorrow.
Their numbers at Madrid were similar. Vinícius (who celebrated his 24th birthday on Friday), now in his sixth season in Spain, scored 24 goals and made nine assists in 39 matches. Bellingham, in his first season in the neighboring country, scored 23 goals and made 13 assists in 42 games.
Other factors will be influential, but performance in international competitions could be the "tie-breaker" factor, and here the favoritism clearly falls on the English midfielder. Despite not having a spectacular European Championship, he secured his country's victory in the opening game (1-0 against Serbia) and kept them in the tournament with an incredible bicycle kick in the fifth minute of added time against Slovakia in the round of 16. On the other hand, the Brazilian only performed well in the match against Paraguay, in which he scored twice, and missed the quarter-final against Uruguay (resulting in Brazil's elimination) after receiving two yellow cards in the group stage.
The other possible scenario on Sunday namely, a victory for Spain would bring several other candidates into the discussion. First and foremost, players from La Roja. Lamine Yamal has been garnering all the praise throughout the tournament, and another great performance in the final could put him in the running. Even Carvajal has put himself forward for the award, despite only one defender having ever won it: Fabio Cannavaro, in 2006.
The Spanish name most mentioned in recent (many) months, however, is that of a midfielder: Rodri. A central figure in Manchester City's achievements in recent seasons, he is the beacon and main reference for Luis de la Fuente's national team. He was already considered a candidate last season, finishing fifth in the final voting.
Mbappé, always a strong contender, and even Toni Kroos were also mentioned as potential candidates, although this was contingent on a European Championship victory, which ultimately did not happen.
In recent days, however, another name has emerged in the betting markets: Messi, of course. It is true that the Argentine star has left the top tier of European football since he decided to leave PSG for the United States in the summer of 2023, and he hasn't been performing at a high level in the Copa América, but... it's Messi, and seeing him lift another trophy with his national team always has a strong impact on these awards.
On September 4, "France Football" will announce the finalists, in an edition that for the first time will be held in partnership with UEFA, although it will retain the same voting system: the organization nominates 30 names and collects votes from 100 journalists representing the top 100 countries in the FIFA ranking. The final ceremony, where the winner will be revealed, will take place on October 28 in Paris.
The date for the The Best gala, an award of the same nature but given by FIFA with a different voting system, has yet to be determined.
As the anticipation builds for both the Ballon d'Or and The Best awards, the football world is abuzz with speculation and excitement. The inclusion of new partners and changes in the voting process add an extra layer of intrigue to this year's awards season. Fans and pundits alike will be watching closely as these prestigious honors unfold, eagerly awaiting to see which players will be recognized for their outstanding performances on the field. Whether it's the proven legends like Messi and Mbappé or the rising stars like Bellingham and Yamal, the competition for football's top individual accolades promises to be more intense and thrilling than ever.
